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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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Red Rock employees rejected unionisation the following month by a 627-534 vote, although the NLRB and the DC appeals court have held that the company took steps to prevent a fair and honest election. The timing of the benefits rollout and unionisation petition have been a central issue in the matter in the years since.

“Despite the enhanced benefits implementation starting before the union sought recognition of any Red Rock employees, the District Court found that the timing and rollout of the benefits were intended to deter the union’s organising effort and ordered Red Rock to recognise and bargain with the union pending completion of the board’s administrative proceedings,” Station’s SCOTUS petition reads in part.

While Station has remained steadfast in its opposition to Culinary, the union has made gains elsewhere in recent years. The entire Las Vegas Strip is now unionised, and Culinary used city-wide strikes as leverage in late 2023 and early 2024 to gain new multi-year labour agreements with the city’s major operators, including Wynn, Caesars and MGM.