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Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.
Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.
There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.
About Shootin Hoops
I’d like to thank our leader, Calvin Ayre, for giving me an opportunity to write about the gambling industry, but also for creating a platform that spoke to a different side of the industry, and wasn’t afraid to reveal uncomfortable truths when necessary. I’m excited to see what comes next in his campaign to wake the world up to the power of Bitcoin SV.
Bill Beatty, our Editor-in-Chief, was my guiding light. I learned to think of journalism, the gambling industry, and even life, in whole new ways thanks to him, and I’ll always count on him as one of my mentors.
But I couldn’t have accomplished half of what I did without all of my colleagues, past and present. Our talented team of writers, editors, web site development guys, production team, on screen reporters, Human Resources, Accountants, everyone. It took the whole team to make sure we put up the latest news and opinions every day, and everyone deserves their fair share of the credit.
